Ibnsina Pharma managed to grow its market share from 15.4% in 2015 to 22.4% in 2020 as revenues grew at a 5-year CACGR of 29%. Across our forecast period, we assumed Ibnsina Pharma will manage to grow its market share by c.1% to reach 25.5% by 2025, thanks to the presence of small players who are not profitable and are exiting the market that is highly regulated. Market share growth translates into a top line 5-year CAGR of 15%, where retail revenues is assumed to capture an average of 70% across our forecast period. Given the fact that industry prices and margins are regulated, we assumed GPM to start at 7.8% in 2021, before hovering around 8.3% across our forecast period. Moreover, 60% of salaries are fixed, translating into an average EBITDA margin of 4% compared to 3.6% in 2020 and a historical average of 3.9%.
