Kenya | NSE

Equity Group 3Q21 net earnings edged up by 78.64% to KES 26.87Bn which was above our expectations of a KES 19.26Bn PAT, while the EPS also grew by 77.61% to KES 6.93. The impressive growth in the bottom line was mainly driven by a 25.46% growth in operating income to KES 80.46Bn and a 65.17% decline in Loan Loss provisioning to KES 5.14Bn. This was in line with our expectations backed by improving economic conditions in operating countries and the sector's performance.

During the month, KPLC and KenGen released their full year financials. KPLC profit after tax increased by 258.68% y/y to KES 1.49Bn. The increase was seen from a rise in revenue derived from the reopening of the economy and a larger consumer base. Additionally, cost management and financing strategies boosted the significant increase in profits. Meanwhile, KenGen saw net earnings decrease by 93.94% to KES 1.19Bn. The large decrease was attributed to the reinstatement of income tax obligations that had been relaxed in 2020, this resulted in an increase in tax payments by 195.92% y/y to KES 13.6Bn in 2021. Nonetheless, the board recommended a KES 0.30 dividend that is likely to increase investor sentiment and support the counter.

We issue a SELL recommendation on Safaricom PLC with a target price of KES 38.81 representing a downside of 7.60% on the current price of KES 42.00. We believe that the market over-reacted to the news of the expansion into Ethiopia. However, the company’s fundamentals remain strong. Our valuation is informed by ability of the company to weather the negative effects of the pandemic and the intended regional expansion to the untapped Ethiopian telco market ...

We expect to see increased economic activity on the back of increased vaccine inoculation across more regions in the country. We anticipate that the cost of living will continue to rise based on higher food and fuel prices and the recent implemented tax measures.

During the month of August, a clearer economic condition was revealed by the release of various half year financial results specifically in the banking sector. The banking sector experienced major growth in their profitability which was fundamentally due to decreased loan loss provisions. The sectors top line growth remained stable as loans and advances gradually increased. Due to the positive results investor sentiments have improved with expectations of dividend announcements in their full year results.

NCBA Group 1H21 net earnings increased by 76.93% to KES 4.66Bn. The rise was mainly driven by a decrease in in loan loss provisions that dropped by 60.70% to KES 0.64Bn and a 19.7% increase in net interest income to KES 13.4Bn.