Following engagement with the management of MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (MTNN), we have revised our FY’25 revenue projection for the business to N4.9 trillion (vs. N4.8 trillion prior). This adjustment reflects the greater-than-anticipated impact of the increase in telecoms tariffs on the voice and data segments. Notably, the tariff increase was announced in February and mostly implemented in the last two weeks of March 2025, indicating that the strong revenue growth of Q1'25 (+40.5% YoY) was only minimally driven by the price adjustment, with further support coming from growth in minutes of use and megabits per user. Ceteris paribus, we expect the impact of the tariff adjustment to be more pronounced in the coming financial results (i.e. Q2 onwards). This impact should combine with sustained subscriber growth to boost the company's top line.
After rising by 27.7% YoY in Q1'25, voice revenue could remain resilient for the rest of the year due to higher prices, relatively inelastic demand, and continued support from the ramp-up in MTNN's Customer Value Management. Accordingly, we forecast a 31.0% increase in voice revenue for FY’25E. The projection should also translate to the segment's strongest annual growth in over five years.
