In 2021, we expect the global economy to take ‘a shot at recovery’, thanks to the announcement and approval of effective Covid-19 vaccines. The risks of re-emerging infections remain high, however, and much will depend on the speed, scale, and long- term effectiveness of vaccination. Away from the virus, the outcome of the recent US presidential election which will see Joe Biden replace President Trump from January 2021 greatly reduces political risk. Also, a Joe Biden presidency is positive for global trade and efforts against climate change.