Following a weaker-than-expected Q1'25 performance, marked by a 17.9% YoY revenue decline and a surge in finance costs that led to a net loss of N120.0 million, we revise our Target Price ("TP") for TOTAL to N621.71 (from N795.04 previously) and downgrade our rating to SELL. The earnings miss underscores persistent demand weakness across key 'White Product' lines, despite higher product prices, and highlights margin pressures from rising operating and finance expenses. Notably, the topline contraction was exacerbated by intensified price competition following the recent full deregulation of the downstream sector, with consumers becoming increasingly price-sensitive. TOTAL's relatively higher pricing compared to peers led to further margin erosion. While the lubricants and non-fuel segments posted resilient growth, their positive momentum failed to mask the impact of weaker sales in the White Product segment. Hence, we now adopt a cautious outlook on the business’s financials for the coming quarters.
