In our view, MTNN may be set for another data-driven robust earnings performance in FY'22. The recently released Q1'22 financial statement, for example, showed that data contributed 66.6% of total revenue growth, while the voice segment (54.9% of total sales) contributed only 16.5%. The primary drivers of data revenue growth are:

1. Increased usage from active data customers

2. Conversion of voice-only customers to voice and data users

3. Improved network rollout.


As shown in figure 1, despite consecutive quarters of growth, only 51.1% of MTNN's mobile subscribers are data users. This low coverage suggests significant scope for continued migration from 'voice only' to 'voice and data'. Another pointer to the strong potential of data is the company's materially low average data usage per month of 4,687 MB compared to a global mean of 9,400 Mb. All in, we now forecast a data revenue CAGR of 38.4% over our forecast horizon (vs 33.7% previously).