MTNN’s performance was constrained in FY’23 and Q1’24, owing to a surge in costs and FX-induced drag on profitability. In FY’24, we expect MTNN to report a loss of N27.41 billion, materially lower than the N137.02 billion in FY’23, due to a likely tamer currency pressure in 2024. Adjustments to our model translate to a 12-month target price of N240.28 per share and a HOLD recommendation.
Sustained growth in top line
We believe MTNN is well-positioned to benefit from the upsides in Nigeria’s fast-growing telecommunication sector, given its market leadership position (37.4% of the total market share). We project MTNN’s FY’24 revenue to grow by 20.4% YoY to N2.97 trillion, driven by 8.0% and 35.0% increases in voice and data, respectively. Gains in the latter, which is now the biggest contributor to the top line, reflect growing digital connectivity, improving data bundle offerings, and the expanding use of online services.
