Across 9M'22, cement sector volumes remained mostly flat YoY at c.22.2 MT, aided by an over 15.0% surge in the output from BUACEMENT, which masked the impact of weaker outturns in DANGCEM and Lafarge. But for the support from BUACEMENT's new line-4 in Sokoto, sector volumes would have declined across the board. According to DANGCEM and Lafarge, the pullback in volumes reflected inadequate gas supply, heavier than expected rainfall, and depressed consumer wallets. In our view, support from BUACEMENT's new plant, improvement in gas supply, and continued private/public sector partnership suggest that sector volume may be higher in FY'23.
