NGX | Nigerian Exchange - Monthly Equities Report - July 2024 : Rate cut expectation drives rotation into small caps; bearish bias in local equities

    Global Markets

    The global equities market recorded its third consecutive positive monthly close in July 2024, with the MSCI World Index increasing by 1.70% compared to the returns in June (+1.93%) and May (+4.23%). Specifically, gains in US and UK equities outweighed the bearish outings in Asian markets.

     

    Nigerian Equities

    In July, bearish sentiments returned to the exchange, with the benchmark index contracting by 2.28% to close at 97,774.22 points. As a result, the year-to-date (YTD) return moderated to 30.76%. The downturn was influenced by negative reactions to earnings reports and proposed regulatory changes (such as the introduction of a windfall tax on banks' realised foreign exchange gains). Specifically, price declines in DANGCEM (-9.99%), MTNN (-6.54%), ZENITHBANK (-7.28%), UBA (-9.58%), and NESTLE (-9.78%) overshadowed the interests in OANDO (+66.67%), UCAP (+16.96%), CONOIL (+37.14%), PRESCO (+16.60%), and AIRTELAFRI (+4.91%). The top gainer for the month was OANDO (+66.67%), while the top loser was NSLTECH (-33.90%).

    Excluding the oil and gas index, all sectoral indices mirrored the broader bearish market, with the banking index declining by 3.47% MoM. Amid the current recapitalisation activities, the bearish bias for banks was spurred by the introduction of a 70.0% windfall tax on realised FX gains, which resulted in sell-offs in FBNH (-4.34%), UBA (-9.58%), GTCO (-2.22%), ACCESSCORP (-3.43%), ZENITHBANK (-7.28%) and STERLINGNG (-10.67%). 

     

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