Domestic Crude Palm Oil (CPO) producers have benefited from the sustained rally in CPO prices, which have jumped 53.8% in the last twelve months. The price increase resulted in an average revenue growth of 73.8% across our coverage names in 9M’21. In our view, global CPO prices are likely to remain elevated in the coming year, partly due to lingering supply disruptions in key producing countries like Indonesia and Malaysia and accelerating demand for biofuels. We forecast global CPO prices to remain elevated over the next twelve months, given our expectations of a sustained imbalance between global CPO demand and supply. We believe that labour constraints in Malaysia, as well as Indonesias’ export levies are likely to strain supply (both countries account for 84% of global CPO export). At the same time, rising demand for biofuels (particularly CPO biofuels) as a result of higher crude oil prices is projected to put further pressure on CPO demand and, consequently, prices.
