Nigeria | Monthly fixed income report - January 2023 : In search of value

The African LCY sovereign bond market has traded cautiously since the start of the new year amid fragile macroeconomic conditions and reduced global liquidity. To wit, the Bloomberg African Bond Index (AFMI) pared 3.6% in January 2023, lagging the emerging market index (+3.6%). Furthermore, growing fiscal concerns and the contagion risk from countries like Ghana resulted in widened credit spreads. In our view, the current yield level in the African credit market appears relatively attractive in countries with relative fiscal prudence and improving fundamentals. Nevertheless, broad valuations remain a mixed bag, requiring investors to be cautious when assessing value through a traditional lens, given that sovereign credit stress (see figure 3) touched an unprecedented level in 2022.