Global growth prospects were initially estimated at 2.9% in 2024 according to IMF estimates. The IMF's April World Economic Outlook further revised global growth for 2024 to 3.2%, with growth expected to remain flat at 3.2% in 2025. Advanced economies have been more resilient to the impact of higher rates and other macro policy tightening than anticipated, paving way for a soft landing. Global inflation is expected to continue receding in 2024, coming down to 5.9% and 4.5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. For the Sub-Saharan Africa region, growth is expected to come in weaker at 3.8% on account of the negative effects of weather shocks and supply chain bottlenecks.
Growth for Zimbabwe has not been insulated from the headwinds in the region as the domestic economy is now projected to expand by 2% in 2024, down from the 2024 National Budget projection of 3.5%. The impact of the El-Nino drought has been more severe than initially estimated, resulting in agriculture contracting 21.2% from the initial forecasted contraction of 4.9%. However, national economic growth is expected to be anchored by resilient performance in the mining sector, with increased output of PMs, particularly chrome and nickel, going into offsetting dampened hard commodity prices. Merchandise exports in 1H24 increased 3.4% y/y to US$3.4bn supported by increased exports of gold, agricultural commodities, and manufactured products. The expectation is that to CY24, the category will grow a marginal 1.4% to US$7.2bn. Merchandise imports in 1H24 have seen a 4.1% increase to US$4.2bn driven by higher volumes of food, fuel, raw materials, vehicles, and manufactured goods imports. Notably, food imports have grown 58.1% to US$433.5mn reflecting an increase in maize imports to supplement the meagre harvest. The country's current account however remained positive, buoyed by a 16.5% increase in inward remittances to US$1.2bn in the first half of the year.
