In February 2023, I had the opportunity to speak with Suman Modwel(1), professor emeritus at École des Ponts Business School. On this date, Suman asked me three questions relating to the Moroccan economy:
- What is the GDP growth rate? The consensus forecast was less than 2.0% for 2023E;
- What is the level of inflation? At that time, Morocco showed a peak of more than 10.0%;
- What is the unemployment rate? The latest figures showed a high level of 12.0%.
Based on these indicators, Suman’s reaction was, “…and you’re still alive? ". Certainly, Suman’s response was ironic but at the same time very telling. This highlights a strong point of the Moroccan economy. This is its capacity to absorb external shocks within an environment where the crises have been almost permanent since 2020.
Thanks to its resilience which is becoming a critical criterion in investors decision-making process, Morocco is considerably improving its credibility toward the international community, allowing the Kingdom to seize the new opportunities offered by the several models of cooperation. This is what we call the new Virtuous Circle of Resilience.
A STRONG ECONOMIC RESILIENCE IN THE FACE OF THE SEVERAL WAVES OF CRISES
The term resilience perfectly sums up the behavior of the Moroccan economy during recent years. This ability to absorb external shocks within an environment marked by successive crises becomes a strong competitive advantage for economies :
- Since the Covid crisis, the Moroccan economy has shown a modest but continuous recovery, going from 1.3% in 2022 to 3.2% in 2024E. It is interesting to note the rise of non-crop component whose growth profile is less volatile. This configuration allows Morocco to better absorb drought shocks compared to past years;
- Thanks to the sectoral strategies deployed over the last decade, such as Automotive, Phosphate, Tourism, Marhaba Operation, etc., we notice a favorable orientation of Morocco's external indicators compared to pre-Covid levels. Performances which brought foreign exchange reserves to a record of MAD 359 Bn in 2023.
